May 2008 Results

Well, overall I did ok. I ended up $1,322.81 for the month. The majority of that though was rakeback. Hey - I'll take it. My BR at Full Tilt is $2038 and my BR at Stars is $326. And that includes the $1,000 I took out. If I hadn't withdrew over the course of last year, I'd be rolled for NL200. Its probably good that I withdrew a lot because rolled or not, I'm not ready for NL200.

Total for year: +$2,301. Well behind my goal of making $12,000 this year in poker (I should be at $4,000).

Here are my results at the various levels I played:
25 NL/PL (I put some money at PokerStars to take advantage of bonus offers):
Hands: 10,514
P/L: +472.50
ptBB/100: +8.99

That's a pretty nice win rate. Maybe I should stay at this level...

50 NL/PL FR
Hands: 24,699
P/L: - $10.65
ptBB/100: - 0.03

* I was +4.09 ptBB/100 playing PL50 and - 1.99 ptBB/100 playing NL50

100NL/PL FR
Hands: 1,110
P/L: +383.95
ptBB/100: +17.10

Can you say, short term variance? I can. BUT - I'm going to play more NL100 in May.

I also played 12K hands of 6Max at various levels and was a -$270.20.

I'm not going to play much 6 max for a while.

FR 10K Results

I suck. I did not get 3+ptbb/100 playing NL/PL50 FR over 10,000 hands. Not even close. I've had a number of terrible bad beats, yes, but in the end my problem is my complete and total inability to fold decent, but non-nut hands. I really get married to hands. If you've read my blog (which nobody has), you'll see I've stated this often and I STILL have not learned my lesson. I need to keep that fold button near and dear to my heart especially at the lower levels. Will I get bluffed off of the best hand sometimes? Sure. But more often than not a strong bet on the turn or a check-raised CB, or a raised CB, means my TPTK is no good, or my overpair is now not fairing well. But I don't see the yellow caution lites my opponents give me and I run right through the reds.

I will stop doing that. I have to, or I'll never succeed.

On a positive note, I have amped my PF aggression and opened up a lot (for me) in late position. I've also done well over at PokerStars playing NL/PL 25 FR. (running about 10 ptbb/100). And yes, I know I said I'd never play PS again, but they had a deposit bonus and so free money... Plus I really do like their software. I'll probably continue to play a few tables there and see if I can build a roll to get to 50NL/PL.

6-max experiment part deux - over (for now)

I decided to look at my entire poker history and see if I've done better at FR or at 6M and then I am going to focus on that for awhile.

Here is what I found:

	NL/PL 6M:			NL/PL FR"
	Old	New			Old	New
Hands:	141K	64K		Hands:	341K	8.8K
ptBB:	-0.5	(0.36)		ptBB:	0.78	3.50
VPIP/PFR	15/8	12/8		VPIP/PFR	12/5	11/6
Aggression:	2.56	2.82		Aggression:	2.32	2.47
P/L	-399.6	*-688		P/L	1751	229

As you can see from above, I've faired better at Full Ring vs. 6-max. I've really not done particularly well at either, but based on the above, I'm going to focus on full ring more. I think full ring fits my game a bit better as I just don't think I can be as open and aggressive as I need to be to be successful at 6-max. I still do need to open up my game and my aggressiveness at full ring (my VPIP/PFR need to be much closer together than they are - I'd really like to be at 15/12 and a 3 for total aggression factor).

Specifically what I'm going to do, is the same plan I had for 6M. I'm going to play 10K hands of NL/PL50 FR. If I have +3 ptBB/100 after 10K hands, I move to 100NL/PL. If I don't, I play another 10K hands, regardless of my bankroll. I will not move to 100NL/PL until I hit at or darn near 3 ptBB/100 for a fairly significant sample. I figure if I can't do that at 50 NL/PL then I have no business playing 100 NL/PL.

Goal Update

So I've played 11,043 hands @ PL/NL50 6-max so far this month. My goal was to have +3.5 ptBB/100 after 10,000 hands before I could move up. Well, I'll be playing another 10K hands. In those 11K hands, I had a ptBB/100 of -2.64!! Woo-hoo! Nice start. I'm not too down about it because I know I'm playing a more open, aggressive game (compared to my old ways, not compared to the good players). My VPIP/PFR is at 13.12/10.8 is improving as is my aggression (Total AF is 3.47). I still would like to get my VPIP/PFR up to 17/14ish but 13/11 is a big improvement over last month. Last month I was at: 12/8. My AF was 2.69.

In order to get my VPIP/PFR up to where I want it, I need to work on opening up my range even more from the button and cuttoff and 3-betting lighter. I get nervous doing that because it puts you in awkward spots when called and what I REALLY need to work on is my post-flop play. Being over-rolled for NL/PL50 really helps because I can absorb the bumps I'm encountering. I think my biggest post flop leaks are not 3-barrelling enough, and when I do, not picking the right spots. If I take my time, and think the hand through, I do pretty good. But if I don't look at the board, at my opponents stats/tendencies closely, I find I'm doing the opposite of what I should be doing. And the other biggest problem I'm having, and have had for a long long time is letting go of big hands when I'm probably beat. I get awfully stubborn at times and don't make laydowns that I should. I think that if I could fix that leak, that'd put me over 3 ptBB right there. If I fix all the aforementioned leaks, I may just do pretty decent.

I'm also not too disappointed because if I take away just the times when I got my hand in good and was outdrawn my ptBB/100 would be nearly exactly opposite of what it is. Now I realize I can't help those and I really can't count 100% of those because if I get it in 80/20, I can really only count 80% of that, and some of the situations were closer than that. The point is, I've had more than my share of set-over-sets and and KK vs. AA so far this month. I know I can't focus on the bad beats and use that as a crutch - there is nothing one can do about losing when you get it in ahead and over time the variance evens out. The great players face variance but they still manage a great ptBB and that is because they offset those with making the right plays and fixing leaks. So ultimately, if I am going to have a good ptBB/100 I need to fix these leaks. And, I probably need to play better than the average player because my family has passed down the "Fieselman Luck". :-)

I have been watching a ton of CR videos but focusing on pre-flop and flop situations. I need to re-watch the videos and see how the pros handle turn and river situations that I run into a lot.

And, on a positive front, my $1,003 rakeback deposit should be hitting my account in the next 5 days and I've already earned $141 so far this month. Its crazy to think that over the last 4 months I've been averaging over $500 in rakeback. That's 6g's a year. If I never withdrew and broke even, I'd have one heckuva nice bankroll....

Another cool thing is that rakebreak.com has revised how they cash out and now I can cash out whenever I want vs. only once per month. Nice feature. If the one (ok, zero) person out there is looking to sign up for an account at any of the major poker rooms, please check with me first so i can get you and me some moolah for signing up through rakebreak.com. And if you dont' want to go through me, definitely get a rakebreak account before signing up to a poker room. Rakeback Rules (6K a year for a 50/NL player should be all that needs to be said.)

March Results; April Plans

March sucked. I only ended up $570 for the month and all of that was due to RB and bonuses. The good thing is that I got in a ton of hands and will earned over a grand in RB that I should see in the next few days.

February goals.

My February goals are simple: Improve!

Here is how I plan to do that:

• Spend at least 40 minutes a day looking at Cardrunner videos.
  
• Amp up my aggression in LP (Button and CO) by opening up my first in raise and 3-be t range.
  
• I will not move up to 100NL/PL until I have achieved a ptBB/100 of +3.5 or better for a period of 10K hands at 50NL/PL. If I do not achieve that, I will keep playing at this level until I achieve that goal. This will do 2 things: 1) give me more than enough BR for 100NL/PL; and 2) prove to me that I can be a winner at this level.
  
• If I make it to 100NL/PL this month, I won't move up to 200NL/PL until I've played 20K hands at 100NL/PL at 3.0 ptBB/100.