Poker EV Graph

The graph below shows what I actually made compared to what I should have made. The blue line represents my actual winnings, while the red line represents what I should have won (based on EV calculations (i.e. if I went AI with AA PF vs. KK I should win that hand x% of the time and that is what is used to plot the red line). As you can see, I've lost a lot more than I should have so luck has been bad. This makes me feel a little bit better about the downswing I've been on lately.

Mid-Jan 08 Report - Nice downswong

Ugh. A great start to January has turned horrible. I've dropped over 500 bucks since January 9th. The cards have been horrible to me as witnessed by the -$400 on the EV grapher. What this means is that when I've had the best hand when the money got all-in, I lost $400 more than I should have won based on the percentages.

I've seen my ptBB/100 fall rapidly at NL50 FR. At one point it was up over 8, now its down to 1.64. I've decided to post a screen shot of pokertracker vs. summarizing here. In addition to what you see in the PT screenshot below, I received $525 in rakeback from last month plus I'm up $120 at Pokerstars playing the $4.40 180 man sit and goes (and that includes an 0-for-17 not making the money string).

Profit/Loss thru 1-15 (including rakeback): $927.44

If you would have told me before the month started that I'd be up this much 1/2 through I would have been elated. But after a great start, this is actually disappointing.

Poker Tracker Image:

Jan First Week Results

Its been a great start to January and 2008 - I've been on a huge upswong. I'm not kidding myself in thinking that its all skill as my normal ptBB/100 is 1.9 and this month its 7.42 for the first week of January, but I have been playing better. I watched a video from RyanMCU and learned a lot - especially on how to be aggressive vs. limpers when in position as well as how to open up my opening ranges and I think its helped (although my VPIP is still lower than I want it to be). I do think that I should be able to meet my goal of 3+ ptBB/100 for 50NL this month. A nice plus is that I'm now rolled for NL100 FR and I took a shot and was very successful (but again, its over a very small sample so who knows how I'll actually do). I plan on mixing in some NL100 FR tables with my 50NL FR tables and hopefully I'll be settled in at NL100 by month end.


50NL
Hands: 8,205
P&L: +$605.88
ptBB: +7.42

30NL (Deepstack)
Hands: 3,724
P&L: +$57.25
ptBB: +2.58

100NL
Hands: 110
P&L: +101.60
ptBB: +46.18

So far so good in January

I have had a pretty good in '08 having one of my better single days in my poker career. I made $232 in cash games and came in 4th in a $4.40 180-man S&G on Stars (good for a $54 cash). Also I've recently found 30NL FR (Deepstacks) tables which are total fishing ponds. For those who are interested, deepstack tables mean you can buy in for 200 big blinds vs. they typical 100. Here are my cash game numbers from yesterday (does not include the few hands of 50PL FR I played yesterday):

50NL
Hands: 844
P&L: +140.55
ptBB/1oo: +16.65

30NL (Deepstack)
Hands: 854
P&L: +105.25
ptBB/1oo: +20.54

Today (Jan 4) started off terrible when this 2 outer hit on the river:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.comFlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)

Button ($25.50)
SB ($50.05)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($16.60)
UTG+1 ($22.70)
MP1 ($52.80)
MP2 ($19.40)
MP3 ($37.60)
CO ($47)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Jd, Jh.

2 folds, MP1 raises to $1.75, 5 folds, Hero calls $1.25. (no stats yet, so I just call)

Flop: ($3.75) Jc, Ad, 7d (2 players)

Hero checks, MP1 bets $2.75, Hero raises to $7, MP1 raises to $27.5, Hero raises to $55.25 (All-In), MP1 calls $23.50. (woo-hoo! I got a set and got villain to put all his chips in the pot!)


Turn: ($105.75) 5d (2 players, 1 all-in)


River: ($105.75) Ac (2 players, 1 all-in) (crap. he hit 1 of the 2 cards he needed. boo! I was a 91% favorite to win. Ugh. Oh well)


Final Pot: $105.75

Results below:

Hero has Jd Jh (full house, jacks full of aces).
MP1 has Js Ah (full house, aces full of jacks).
Outcome: MP1 wins $110.


But then, this hand comes up and I make my money back and then some:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.comFlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)

MP1 ($57.85)
MP2 ($50)
MP3 ($41.90)
CO ($9)
Button ($52.90)
SB ($18.50)
BB ($43.20)
UTG ($53.70)
Hero ($50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 6h, 6c.

1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Button raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, MP1 calls $0.50. (a min-raise? I call everytime with these HUGE odds)


Flop: ($4.25) Kc, 6s, 2c (4 players)

BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button bets $4.25, BB raises to $8.5, Hero raises to $15, MP1 folds, Button raises to $56.15 (All-In), BB calls $33.70 (All-In), Hero calls $34 (All-In). (awesome. I hit my set and get 2 people to go AI with me with the same hand - can't believe both were willing to get it all in with TPGK!). With them having the same hand, it really hurts their number of outs. I was a 99.34% favorite to win!!!!!!!!!!!)


Turn: ($144.45) 9s (3 players, 3 all-in)


River: ($144.45) Jd (3 players, 3 all-in)


Final Pot: $144.45 (it holds up and I win a HUGE pot!)

2007 50NL FR Results (in more detail); 2007 Graph

That is my 2007 Results graph. WAAAY too swingy for being such a nit.

I was tired last night and wanted to get pokergrapher started on my whole year (fyi - I played 375K hands in total in 2007).

Anyway, here is my 2007 results for 50NL FR:
Hands: 113,895
P&L: +2129.15
ptBB: +1.87
VPIP: 11.09
PFR: 5.18